Tazabek - The economic news outlet Tazabek analyzed a publication by Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, president of the National Academy of Sciences, and modeled a possible scenario for the shallowing of Issyk-Kul.

On April 9, Abdrakhmatov published a diagram of the lake’s bottom structure, depicting it as a “deep basin with a gentle slope in the north” and a deeper southern shore.

“If the lake level drops another 2–3 meters over the next few years (indicated by a horizontal dashed line on the diagram), a large area in the northern part—which used to be the lake’s shoreline—will be exposed!

We’ve all swum on the northern shore and know that in certain places there are sections of the shoreline where you can enter the lake and walk far (100–200 m) toward the center, and the depth will remain around 1–1.5 meters the whole time. So, it is precisely these areas, which are shaded in the northern part of the diagram, that will in the future no longer be part of the lake but part of the land. But… a swampy and uninhabitable area,” explained Abdrakhmatov, a geologist.

The next day, April 10, the president of the National Academy of Sciences published a statement explaining that, overall, the lake’s water level has been stable over the past 40 years, but compared to 1854, the level has dropped by 13.9 meters.

The Ministry of Agriculture’s press service had previously reported on the “trend of declining water levels observed in recent years” in July 2025.

Later, in December, Meder Mashiev, then Minister of Natural Resources, confirmed the shallowing, citing the cyclical nature of the phenomenon. In early February 2026, he discussed “climate change issues, including the shallowing of Lake Issyk-Kul” with the director of the multi-country office of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), as reported by the press service of the Ministry of Natural Resources.

The full version of the publication includes an interactive map of Lake Issyk-Kul’s depths, with depth ranges indicated in the legend as follows: 0–5 m, 5–10 m, 10–20 m, 20–30 m, 30–50 m, 50–75 m, 75–100 m, 100–150 m, 150–200 m, 200–250 m, 250–300 m, 300–400 m, 400–500 m, 500–600 m, 600–660 m, and a 3D projection of the lake.

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